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Assessment of the Draft Budget for 2021

December 9, 2020

The budget proposal for 2021 envisages a central government deficit of 178.5 bn dinars (3% of GDP) and a slightly higher general government deficit of about 180.3 bn dinars. This plan, however, rests on the optimistic assumption that the GDP growth in 2021 will amount to a high 6%, which could easily not materialize. In case of a lower economic growth, public revenue would not come in at the planned level, so the ... Read more

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Assessment of the Proposed Supplementary Budget for 2020 and Recommendations for Fiscal Policy in 2021

December 9, 2020

Supplementary budget envisages a record-breaking national budget deficit of 483 bn dinars (8.8% of GDP), while the general government deficit is planned at 492 bn dinars (8.9% of GDP). This is by far the highest fiscal deficit Serbia has ever recorded ... Read more

Effects of the measure “100 Euros for each adult citizen” on inequality and poverty (Comment of the study of the International Labour Organization and the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development)

October 8, 2020

The study of the International Labour Organization (ILO) and European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) arrives at the erroneous conclusion that the program of paying 100 Euros to each adult citizen in Serbia ... Read more

Effects of the healthcare crisis on fiscal and economic trends in 2020 and recommendations for fiscal policy in 2021

July 24, 2020

Following the implementation of the economy rescue package, new challenges come in the form of stopping further rise in public debt and correcting the enlarged budget imbalances. The healthcare crisis continues... Read more

Main Findings from Final Statements of Accounts for 2002-2018 and the Assessment of the Final Statement of Accounts of the State Budget for 2018

January 4, 2020

After three years of failure to publish and seventeen years of failure to adopt the final statements of accounts at the National Parliament, these important laws for the period 2002-2018 have now finally entered ... Read more

EPS Performance Analysis and Recommendations for Investments Increase

January 4, 2020

Until early 1990s, Serbia had a well-established energy system and EPS had, at its disposal, a large excess of production capacities compared to the demand for electrical power in the country at the time. It was this excess that allowed it to meet the needs of the growing domestic consumption over the last 30 years, although it was not investing enough to even maintain the existing production capacities. However ... Read more

Assessment of the Draft Budget for 2020 and Revised Fiscal Strategy for 2020-2022

January 4, 2020

Given the predefined parameters, the proposed budget for 2020 is relatively well planned. The biggest economic mistake in the planned budget policy in 2020 had already been made prior to the elaboration of the 2020 budget - in the 2019 supplementary budget. This supplementary budget defines an exaggerated increase in salaries in the general government, of an average 9.6% (significantly exceeding economic growth) which ... Read more

Strategic recommendations for the budget and fiscal policy in 2020

October 24, 2019

In the 2020 Budget there will be a fiscal space for new economic policies of almost 400 m Euros – a significant funds, but still insufficient when compared to all objective needs of the country. Analysis of the largest weaknesses of Serbian economy shows that it would be best to use the available funds as an incentive for the lacklustre economic growth, by decreasing taxation for businesses, as well as for the ... Read more

Assessment of the Supplementary Budget Law for 2019

October 24, 2019

Supplementary Budget prescribes the usage of the entire surplus made in 2019 budget (due to a better revenue collection than initially expected) by the end of the year. By increasing the public expenditure for about 50 bn Dinars, instead of a modest surplus the budget will end up with the deficit of about 0,5% of GDP – almost exactly as originally planned for this year. The Fiscal Council’s analyses show that this political ... Read more

Pay grades and employment in the civil sector in Serbia: from an unfinished reform to a sustainable system

July 4, 2019

An ordered salary and employment system in the public sector is one of the main pillars underpinning a functional Government - and in Serbia, such a system does not exist. Reform of salaries and employment is a massive professional and political challenge, but the majority of European countries have been able to respond to this challenge successfully. Although implementation ... Read more

Opinion on Fiscal Strategy Draft for 2020 with projections for 2021 and 2022

July 4, 2019

The Fiscal Strategy Draft prescribes a suitable and realistic quantitative fiscal objectives. The low medium-term deficit of 0.5% of GDP is adequate for Serbia, as it leads to a further decrease of public debt share in GDP, guaranteeing macroeconomic stability. However, for a complete public finance recovery and sustainable economic growth acceleration, a number of structural reforms missing from the Fiscal Strategy Draft ... Read more

Opinion on Fiscal Strategy for 2019 with projections for 2020 and 2021

January 4, 2019

The Fiscal Strategy has been missing its main mark for years i.e. to serve as a credible, strategic document for medium-term public finance management. As a fiscal policy framework in the next three years, it should comprise the following elements: 1) objective identification of the country’s most pressing economic issues and needs; 2) clear definition of fiscal policy objectives and strategic guidelines for the best ... Read more

Assessment of the Budget Proposal for 2019

December 12, 2018

The 2019 budget plans for the central government deficit of 23 bn dinars, which, at the same time, is the dominant share in the general government deficit planned at 29 bn dinars (0.5% of GDP). The envisaged low fiscal deficit is suitable for Serbia, since it secures the achieved macroeconomic stability (low inflation, stable dinar exchange rate etc.); it will also lead, in the upcoming year, to a further decrease of the high public debt share in GDP. The second strength of the ... Read more

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